08/29/2024

Republicans have over 50% support and double-digit leads in all statewide races

The August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll surveyed 900 likely Missouri voters about their opinions regarding the 2024 election, political issues facing the state and country, Missouri education issues, and matters considered by the Missouri state government.

Election 2024 Statewide Races

• President: 54% Donald Trump; 41% Kamala Harris; 3% other; 2% not sure
• US Senator: 53% Josh Hawley; 42% Lucas Kunce; 0% other; 4% not sure
• Governor: 51% Mike Kehoe; 41% Crystal Quade; 3% other; 6% not sure
• Lt. Governor: 51% David Wasinger; 37% Richard Brown; 1% other; 11% not sure
• Attorney General: 51% Andrew Bailey; 38% Elad Gross; 1% other; 9% not sure
• Secretary of State: 54% Dennis Hoskins; 36% Barbara Phifer; 1% other; 9% not sure
• Treasurer: 52% Vivek Malek; 38% Mark Osmack; 1% other; 10% not sure

Election 2024 Missouri Ballot Propositions

• Amendment 2 (Sports betting): 50% Support, 30% oppose, and 21% not sure
• Amendment 3 (Abortion): 52% Support, 34% oppose, and 14% not sure, an 8 percentage-point increase in support from the Feb. 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll
• Proposition A (Minimum Wage): 57% Support, 30% oppose, and 14% not sure

Sports and Schools Policy

• Voters believe that owners of professional sports teams should pay 67% of the costs of construction of professional sports stadiums, and state governments and local governments should each pay 17%, on average
• Over 72% of voters support prohibiting high school students from accessing their cell phones either during class or regular school hours
• Fifty-two percent of voters support having high school start times begin at 8:30 a.m. or later in their school district
• Thirty percent of voters support the operation of four-day school weeks in their local public school district, a 4 percentage-point decrease from the Feb. 2023 SLU/YouGov Poll

Foreign Policy

• Forty-three percent of voters agree that the U.S. should provide Ukraine with military aid in its conflict with Russia, 40% disagree
• Forty-four percent of voters agree that the U.S. should provide Israel with military aid in its conflict with Palestine, 36% disagree

Gun Policy

• Forty-nine percent of voters oppose allowing Missouri counties, St. Louis City, and Kansas City to pass their own local gun regulations, 34% favor
• Forty-eight percent of voters favor allowing Missourians with a concealed carry permit to possess a firearm on public transit and in places of worship
• Eighty-five percent of voters favor banning minors from carrying guns on public property without adult supervision

Approval of Key Political Figures

• President Joe Biden’s performance: 41% approve, 58% disapprove.
• Governor Mike Parson’s performance: 53% approve, 41% disapprove.
• Senator Josh Hawley’s performance: 53% approve, 39% disapprove (All-time SLU/YouGov Poll High)
• Senator Eric Schmitt’s performance: 49% approve, 32% disapprove (All-time SLU/YouGov Poll High)
• U.S. Congress performance: 26% approve, 66% disapprove.

The margin of error for the full survey sample is ± 3.79%.

Top-line survey results can be found Top-line survey results. Results with demographic and party cross-tabs.

Support for Abortion, Sports Betting, and Minimum Wage Ballot Measures

Missouri voters will decide whether to legalize abortion, allow betting on professionalized sports, and raise the minimum wage this November. The SLU/YouGov Poll presented likely Missouri voters with the exact language they would see on their November ballots for Amendment 3 (abortion), Amendment 2 (sports betting), and Proposition A (minimum wage). Missouri voters appear to largely support each of these ballot initiatives.

Seven states have already expanded abortion access via the ballot initiative following the overturning of the Roe-v-Wade decision (New York Times, Aug. 23, 2024), and Missouri’s Amendment 3 is one of 10 state-level abortion-related initiatives that will be on November ballots across the country. The SLU/YouGov Poll found that Amendment 3 is likely to pass. In the August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll, 52% of Missouri likely voters supported Amendment 3, 34% opposed, and 14% were not sure.

“Our more recent polling reflects an eight percentage-point increase in support for Amendment 3 since we asked the same question in February 2024,” said Steven Rogers, Ph.D., SLU/YouGov Poll Director and associate professor of political science at Saint Louis University. “There were gains in support across men, women, Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters. If these trends continue, it looks like Amendment 3 will pass in Missouri.”

After being stalled in the Missouri state legislature, legalizing sports betting is also on the Missouri ballot. Approximately 50% (49.6%) of voters supported Amendment 2 in the August SLU/YouGov Poll, which would legalize betting on professionalized sports for those 21 years or older in Missouri. Approximately 30% of voters opposed Amendment 2. Like Amendment 3, a considerable portion of voters – approximately 21% – were not sure.

“For all of the ballot initiatives, there are a fair number of `not sure’ voters,” said Rogers. “Ballot language can be confusing to voters. However, as campaigns spread messages like ‘Vote Yes on 2’ or ‘No on 2,’ voters will form more concrete opinions.”

Fifty-seven percent of voters supported Proposition A, which would raise the state minimum wage to $13.75 per hour in 2005 and to $15 per hour beginning in 2026. The law would also require employers with fifteen or more employees to provide one hour of paid sick leave for every thirty hours worked.

Despite strong support for the ballot measure, Ken Warren, Ph.D., associate director of the SLU/YouGov Poll and a professor emeritus of political science at SLU, characterized Democratic and Republican voters as “polar opposites” on the amendment. While 87% of Democrats supported the minimum wage proposition, only 37% of Republicans did.

Republicans look to sweep statewide races

The August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll found Missouri Republican candidates have double-digit leads in each statewide race, including President, US Senator, Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer, continuing their dominance of statewide races in Missouri since 2018.

After winning the state of Missouri with a 15-point margin in 2020, Donald Trump holds a 13 percentage-point lead over Kamala Harris in the August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll, with only 2% of voters reporting being not sure. Trump leads Harris among men, women, and independent voters by at least 10%.

At the state level, the SLU/YouGov Poll found that 53% of voters also approve of outgoing Governor Mike Parson’s performance, and 41% disapprove. Parson’s endorsed and appointed Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe will likely replace him in the Governor’s mansion following the 2024 election. The August survey found Kehoe leads Democratic Leader Crystal Quade 51% to 41%. While Quade is ahead among voters with a college degree and those younger than 45 years old, Kehoe has support from at least 60% of voters who live in regions outside of St. Louis and Kansas City. Kehoe also has more support than Quade among both men and women voters.

“Although Democrats normally do better than Republicans among women voters, this is not true in Missouri in these upcoming election contests,” said Warren. “All Republican candidates are winning by comfortable margins among both male and female voters.”

Senator Josh Hawley leads Democrat Lucas Kunce 53% to 42%, with 4% of voters reporting being not sure. Fifty-three percent of Missouri voters also reported approving of Hawley’s performance as a U.S. Senator, and 39% disapprove, which is his highest mark in the four-year history of the SLU/YouGov Poll and makes him the most approved political figure considered in the current survey. Forty-nine percent of voters approved of U.S. Senator Eric Schmitt, which is also his highest recorded approval rating in the SLU/YouGov Poll.

“There are still 68 days until the election,” said Rogers. “But even if every undecided voter in our poll decided to vote for the Democratic candidate in any statewide race, our polling numbers would say the Republicans would still win, at least as of right now.”

Democrats hope that Amendments 3 and Proposition A will provide their candidates with reverse coattails. Sixty-one percent of supporters of Amendment 3 also supported Harris for President, 65% supported Kunce for Senate, and 62% supported Quade for Governor. Meanwhile, 33%, 30%, and 30% of Amendment 3 backers, respectively, supported Trump, Hawley, and Kehoe.

Sixty-one percent of Proposition A supporters also supported Harris for President, 65% supported Kunce for Senate, and 63% supported Quade for Governor. Meanwhile, 33%, 31%, and 30%, respectively, backed Trump, Hawley, and Kehoe.

Prohibiting Cell Phones in Schools

Adoption of four-day school weeks has been on the rise. In 2010-2011, one school district in Missouri operated a four-day week. Last year, 168 districts (30% of Missouri public-school districts) operated under a four-day school week.

There is a growing debate in Missouri schools regarding whether students should have access to cell phones during school hours. Limiting access could prevent distractions from learning, but some parents express concern about being able to reach their children during emergencies, such as a school shooting. At least eight states have passed laws, issued orders, or adopted rules to curb phone use among students at school (New York Times, Aug. 11, 2024). Cell phone policies in Missouri are determined at the district or school level.

When asked by the SLU/YouGov Poll, 72% of likely voters agreed that high school students should be prohibited from accessing their cell phones during regular school hours (margin of error 5.4%), and 78% agreed that cell phones should be banned during class (margin of error 5.3%).

“Results across political parties found more than two-thirds of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents indicated support for cell phone bans during regular school hours,” said Ashley Burle, Ph.D., associate director of the Saint Louis University/YouGov poll and interim director of graduate admissions for Saint Louis University’s School of Education. “Notably, only 45% of voters aged 18-29 years old supported cell phone bans during regular school hours, making them the only group without majority support. However, 57% of young voters support having cell phone restrictions during class time.”

Missouri Voters Want to Push Back High School Start Times

Many children started waking up earlier to go back to school. Recognizing the importance of sleep, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) endorses delaying middle and high school start times to 8:30 a.m. or later to promote adequate sleep in adolescents.

“Results from the SLU/YouGov Poll overwhelmingly suggest that Missouri voters are in favor of pushing back start high school times,” said Courtney Vahle, Ed.D. Director of Operations at Saint Louis University’s PRiME Center. “Fifty-two percent of voters said they supported delaying high school start times until 8:30 a.m. or later. Among voters below the age of 45, 71% wanted to start high school at 8:30 a.m. or later.”

Missouri Voters Continue to Oppose Four-day School Weeks

Adoption of four-day school weeks has been on the rise. When asked by the SLU/YouGov Poll whether they supported the permanent reduction from a five to a four-day school week in their local public school district, 42% of likely voters were opposed, 30% supported, and 27% were not sure. In comparison, 46% of voters were opposed, 34% supported, and 20% were not sure when the SLU/YouGov Poll asked this same question in February 2023.

"The SLU/YouGov Poll results reveal Missouri voters’ views have changed minimally towards four-day school weeks since February 2023. While fewer voters are opposed, fewer voters are supportive, and more are unsure,” said Burle. “Supporters indicated increased student engagement is the greatest benefit while those opposed indicated loss of student learning was the greatest concern."

Missouri’s recent authorization of Senate Bill 727 changes a few policies relating to four-day school weeks. The SLU/YouGov August 2024 Poll asked likely voters about their opinions on two areas of policy change for school districts in charter counties or cities with more than 30,000 people - support for voter approval of four-day school weeks and financial incentives for teacher salaries for five-day school week operation. More than three out of four (77%) voters supported voter approval to implement a four-day school week. Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all overwhelming supported. A majority (51%) of voters supported financial incentives for teacher salaries in five-day school week districts. Sixty-one percent of Democrats supported this policy while only 45% of Republicans supported, indicating a partisan divide.

Cardinals Fans, Royals Fans, and Voters Want Owners to Pay for Stadiums

The St. Louis Cardinals are Missouri’s favorite baseball team, but voters and baseball fans want owners to pay for most of new stadiums.

More than 58% of Jackson County voters rejected a sales tax increase to help fund sports complexes for the Kansas City Royals and Chiefs. The Kansas state legislature has worked to lure both the Royal and the Chiefs across the state border, and Governor Parson told the Kansas City Star that if the Royals do not have a plan in place by January 1, “it’s going to be too late.” The St. Louis Cardinals also hope to make renovations to Busch Stadium in the next five years.

If new stadiums are built for professional sports teams, Missouri voters want the owners to pay for most of them. Thirty-six percent of likely voters believed that owners should pay at least 90% of the costs of stadiums, and 28% believed owners should pay 100% of the costs of stadiums. On average, Missouri voters believed that “Owners of teams” should pay for 67% of the costs of stadiums, “The Missouri State Government” should pay for 17%,” and “Local governments (e.g., Cities and counties)” should pay for 17%.”

“Voters, even those who are sports fans, really think that owners should be footing the bill for stadiums,” said Rogers. “Twenty-four percent of respondents who said the Cardinals or Royals were their favorite baseball team said that owners should pay 100% of the costs of new stadiums.”

Cardinals and Royals fans, on average, also said that owners should pay 66% of the costs.

Ukraine and Israel Military Aid

The United States’ provision of military aid to Israel and Ukraine in their respective conflicts with Palestine and Russia has been divisive in Missouri politics. On Aug. 6, U.S. Representative Cori Bush lost her primary to Wesley Bell, partly due to Bush’s opposition to the United States’ support of Israel. In April, Senators Hawley and Schmitt were two of 15 Republican senators to vote against the $95 billion foreign aid package to Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan.

When asked about the United States’ involvement in these foreign affairs, 44% of voters agreed with the statement that the United States should provide Israel military aid in its conflict with Palestine. Thirty-six percent disagreed, and 20% were not sure (MoE 5.4%). Similarly, 43% of Missouri voters agreed with the statement that the United States should provide Ukraine military aid in its conflict with Russia. However, 40% disagreed, bringing the difference within the margin of error of 5.3%. Seventeen percent were not sure.

Breaking down these findings, Ellen Carnaghan, Ph.D., professor of political science at Saint Louis University and Russian and Soviet politics expert, said that “Missouri Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to agree that the United States should provide military aid to Ukraine.”

Gun Policy

The shootings at the 2024 Superbowl celebration for the Kansas City Chiefs again brought guns to the Missouri policymakers’ attention. However, the August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll found that Missouri voters only wanted some changes recently proposed by legislators.

Following the shooting, state legislative Democrats sought an initiative that would allow voters to decide whether localities could determine their own gun regulations. However, the August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll found that local control of gun regulation is relatively unpopular with Missouri voters. Only 34% favored allowing Missouri counties, St. Louis City, and Kansas City to pass their own local gun regulations. Forty-nine percent opposed, and 17% were not sure.

Also, following the shooting, HB 1708 stalled in the legislature, which would have allowed Missourians with a concealed carry permit to be allowed to possess a firearm on public transit and in places of worship. When asked about such a policy, 48% of Missouri voters were in favor, 38% opposed, and 14% were not sure.

The August survey found that voters wanted some more regulations on gun policy. In 2023, the Missouri House voted 104-39 against a ban on minors carrying guns without adult supervision in public spaces. However, in the August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll, 85% of Missouri likely voters favored such a ban. Nine percent opposed, and 6% reported being not sure. Seventy-nine percent of voters also reported favoring criminal background checks for all those buying guns, including those bought at gun shows and private sales, which is the same percentage of voters that favored this policy in the February 2023 SLU/YouGov Poll.

All-Time High Ratings for Roads and Infrastructure and Race Relations

In August 2024, Missouri voters gave “Roads and Infrastructure” and “Race Relations in their community” their highest ratings in the four-year history of the SLU/YouGov poll. Ratings of schools, the state economy, and crime demonstrated improvement in the last six months.

Below are the percentage changes in the August 2024 poll compared to the February 2024 results of those who rated the listed condition as “Excellent” or “Good.”

• Economy of the State of Missouri: 6 percentage-point increase (Highest since October 2020 SLU/YouGov Poll)
• Public Schools in your community: 2 percentage-point increase (Highest since October 2020 SLU/YouGov Poll)
• Public Schools in the state of Missouri: 6 percentage-point increase (Highest since June 2020 SLU/YouGov Poll)
• Roads and Infrastructure in the state of Missouri: 5 percentage-point increase (SLU/YouGov Poll All-Time High)
• Crime in your community: 3 percentage-point increase (Highest since July 2021 SLU/YouGov)
• Race relations in your community: 4 percentage-point increase (SLU/YouGov Poll All-Time High)

For complete comparisons of ratings over the history of the SLU/YouGov Poll, see the new Polling by Issue section on the SLU Poll website.

Methodology and Funding

YouGov interviewed 900 likely Missouri voters between Aug. 8-16, 2024. The YouGov panel, a proprietary opt-in survey panel, is comprised of 3.1 million United States residents who have agreed to participate in YouGov Web surveys. Using their gender, age, race, and education, YouGov weighted the set of survey respondents to known characteristics of Missouri voters from the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error for the weighted data is 3.79%.

The August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll was funded by the PRiME Center in SLU’s School of Education.

About YouGov

Saint Louis University has partnered with YouGov to conduct its annual survey of Missouri voters. YouGov conducts surveys for multiple academic institutions and is the primary, trusted survey firm for media organizations, including CBS News and The Economist. An independent Pew Research Center study of online survey firms in 2016 further concluded that YouGov “consistently outperforms competitors.”

About Saint Louis University

Founded in 1818, Saint Louis University is one of the nation’s oldest and most prestigious Catholic institutions. Rooted in Jesuit values and its pioneering history as the first university west of the Mississippi River, SLU offers more than 15,200 students a rigorous, transformative education of the whole person. At the core of the University’s diverse community of scholars is SLU’s service-focused mission, which challenges and prepares students to make the world a better, more just place.