Abortion more important issue among Women, Young Voters, and Quade Supporters

Missouri voters will hear from gubernatorial candidates Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe and Representative Crystal Quade Friday, Sept. 20, in the first debate in the race for Missouri governor. 

The debate is sponsored by and will be moderated by the Missouri Press Association.

The SLU/YouGov Poll asked 450 likely Missouri voters in August: “What issue in the 2024 Election is the most important factor in your vote for Governor of Missouri?” Voters then answered in their own words what was important to them when voting for Governor.

“When asking voters about their most important issue to them, most surveys give respondents a predetermined list of answers,” said Steven Rogers, Ph.D., SLU/YouGov Poll Director and associate professor of political science at Saint Louis University. “Respondents are then forced into particular options, limiting what we know about what voters care about.”  

“To overcome this, the SLU/YouGov Poll allowed voters to say any issue they wanted. For example, one Kehoe voter said their most important issue was “Not allowing farm land [sic] to be sold to China,” and one Quade supporter said, “Care of homeless people. These are responses not found on a typical survey.”

The SLU/YouGov Poll team found that 22% of voters named an economic issue as the most important factor in their vote for Governor, 12% named an issue related to abortion, and 8% named an issue related to criminal justice or public safety. Meanwhile, fewer than 2% of voters said that issues concerning the LGBTQ+ community, election integrity, or foreign ownership of Missouri land were the most important factor in their vote for Governor.

“Many ads we see on television feature candidates talking about transgender health care or saving our democracy, which are very important issues,” said Rogers. “However, at least our polling shows these issues are not the top issues for voters in the 2024 governor’s race.”

In a separate question, voters were asked, “If the election for Governor were being held today, who would you vote for?” Among the full sample in the poll, 51% of Missouri likely voters supported Mike Kehoe, and 41% supported Crystal Quade (MoE 3.9%).  

Most Important Issues for Voters in Missouri Governor’s Race 

Most Important Issues for Kehoe Supporters 

Thirty-one percent of Kehoe supporters named the economy as the most important issue in their vote for Governor. Meanwhile, only 8% of Quade supporters said the economy was their most important issue. One Kehoe supporter said, “According to me, the economy and job growth are the most important issue [sic] for Missouri in the 2024 election.”  

Another Kehoe supporter said, “As a resident of Missouri, my primary concern lies with the economy and the availability of job opportunities, which positions economic development as a crucial factor in my decision when voting for governor.”

The issues mentioned second-most (11% of supporters) by Kehoe supporters concerned criminal justice or public safety. Respondents cited the importance of “Plans to lower crime, back up law enforcement and make communities safer” or “Crime and Safety” for their votes.

Most Important Issues for Quade Supporters

The most important issue for Quade supporters (22% of supporters) was abortion. Meanwhile, only 5% of Kehoe supporters said it was their most important issue. On the issue of abortion, 16% of women said it was their most important issue as compared to 6% of men, and 21% of those aged 18 – 29 said that abortion was their most important issue as compared to 10% of those 65 years old or older.

“Abortion is an important issue for many Democrats and Quade supporters,” said Rogers. “Even though fewer Kehoe supporters list the issue as their most important, our poll also found that 31% of Kehoe supporters also support Amendment 3, which expands legal access to abortion in Missouri.” 

The issues mentioned second-most by Quade supporters related to education (12% of supporters). One Quade supporter told the SLU/YouGov Poll, “The most important factor in my vote for Governor of Missouri is their commitment to improving public education and school funding,” and another Quade supporter said the most important factor in their vote was: “Improving education outcomes in the state including budget increases, teacher retention, Pre-K coverage, etc [sic].” 

“There are big differences in what matters to supporters of Kehoe versus Quade in this election,” said Rogers. “Kehoe supporters prioritize issues related to economy and law and order, and Quade supporters prioritize issues related to reproductive rights and education.”

Methodology and Funding

Two Saint Louis University research assistants independently categorized each survey taker’s response to “What issue in the 2024 Election is the most important factor in your vote for Governor of Missouri?” The final categorizations were reviewed by the SLU/YouGov Poll director, independent of YouGov.

YouGov interviewed 900 likely Missouri voters between Aug. 8-16, 2024. The YouGov panel, a proprietary opt-in survey panel, is comprised of 3.1 million United States residents who have agreed to participate in YouGov Web surveys. Using their gender, age, race, and education, YouGov weighted the set of survey respondents to known characteristics of Missouri voters from the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error for the weighted data is 3.79% for the full sample. The margin of error for the subsample asked the most important factor question is 5.40%.

The August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll was funded by the PRiME Center in SLU’s School of Education.

About YouGov

Saint Louis University has partnered with YouGov to conduct its annual survey of Missouri voters. YouGov conducts surveys for multiple academic institutions and is the primary, trusted survey firm for media organizations, including CBS News and The Economist. An independent Pew Research Center study of online survey firms in 2016 further concluded that YouGov “consistently outperforms competitors.”

About Saint Louis University

Founded in 1818, Saint Louis University is one of the nation’s oldest and most prestigious Catholic institutions. Rooted in Jesuit values and its pioneering history as the first university west of the Mississippi River, SLU offers more than 15,200 students a rigorous, transformative education of the whole person. At the core of the University’s diverse community of scholars is SLU’s service-focused mission, which challenges and prepares students to make the world a better, more just place.